If you only read individual news stories, the investment relocation market over the past four years looks like a series of separate events. Arrange them chronologically and a clear trend emerges.
List of closures, in order
| Timing | Program |
|---|---|
| 11/2020 | Cyprus citizenship |
| 02/2022 | UK Tier 1 Investor |
| 04/2022 | Bulgaria citizenship |
| End 2022 | Montenegro citizenship |
| 02/2023 | Ireland IIP |
| 10/2023 | Portugal discontinues real estate track |
| 2024 | Netherlands |
| 07/2024 | Australia subclass 188 |
| 10/2025 | Japan raises capital requirement 6-fold |
| 04/2025 | Spain's golden visa |
| 04/2025 | Malta citizenship — per EU Court decision |
| 05/2026 | Portugal extends citizenship from 5 to 10 years |
| 01/2027 | Latvia — most tracks, already voted to close |
Over four years, Europe has lost all citizenship-for-sale programs. After Malta's ruling in April 2025, no EU member state sells passports anymore.
Four reasons behind the closures
Housing pressure. Spain explicitly cited this reason when closing its golden visa. Portugal discontinued its real estate track for the same reason. Rental prices in Lisbon and Porto rose 40 to 60% from 2020–2025.
Security and money laundering concerns. The UK closed Tier 1 Investor amid concerns about the source of funds. Cyprus closed following press investigations. The UK revoked visa-free privileges for Nauru because it lacked confidence in the vetting process.
Pressure from the European Union on member states. Bulgaria closed under this pressure. Malta closed following a European Court of Justice ruling.
Conclusions about poor economic efficiency. Australia closed subclass 188 after the Department of Home Affairs concluded the program delivered poor economic results, backed by research from the Department of Finance and the Productivity Commission. This reason differs from the three above and is noteworthy because it is not political.
Four real consequences
A smaller market but better managed. Approximately 14 programs remain in common use out of roughly 25 programs in existence. Remaining programs face stricter due diligence — good for buyers in the long run.
Capital flows concentrate in a few open programs. Italian investor visa applications rose 63.3% in 2025. Hungary opened in July 2024 and quickly became one of Europe's most popular new options. US EB-5, UAE, Portugal's fund track, and five Caribbean programs all recorded increased applications.
The path to a passport is longer everywhere. Portugal went from 5 to 10 years. No European track remains fast anymore. The era of buying an EU passport in a matter of months has ended.
Deadlines have real meaning. When the trend is tightening, a deadline is not a sales tactic. The EB-5 deadline of September 30, 2026 locking in the $800,000 level is set by law, and the investment amount adjustment for inflation starting January 1, 2027 is also set by law.
What this trend does not say
It does not say you must buy now before it closes. That is using data to create pressure, and it leads to poor decisions.
It says three different things:
Data older than two years is almost certainly outdated. Any document listing Spain, Malta, or Australia 188 as open is outdated.
Factor policy risk into your decision. Programs can change terms midway, as Portugal did twice. Ask: if conditions change after I apply, what protections do I have.
Well-managed programs are worth more than cheap programs. The four-year trend shows loose programs are the ones that close or lose visa-free privileges. Paying more for a program with strict due diligence is buying the durability of what you are buying.
How to monitor this yourself
Before signing, check three sources: official documentation from the issuing authority, the update date of the materials being presented to you, and news from the past six months about that country.
We maintain a separate page on programs that have closed or changed terms, updated whenever there is a change. Not to create pressure, but because this market moves faster than sales materials are updated.